Bitcoin's major investors are hitting the brakes on their purchases, with alarming trends suggesting a shift toward a bear market. A recent report from CryptoQuant reveals that the structural holding patterns of Bitcoin 'whales' and 'dolphins'—key players in the cryptocurrency ecosystem—are showing signs of distress, raising concerns about the future direction of Bitcoin's price.
Large accounts, often classified as 'whales' holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, have seen their balances decline at a pace not seen since earlier this year. This negative annual growth reflects a move from accumulation to mild distribution, reminiscent of the dynamics witnessed during the 2022 bear market.
Younger cohorts, known as 'dolphins'—holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC—are also experiencing a slowdown. While their annual growth remains positive, the rate has sharply declined, indicating faltering interest from institutional investors such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries. Monthly balance growth for this group is nearly stagnant, with consecutive lower highs printed since September 2025, according to CryptoQuant.
This weakening of investor momentum aligns with broader market challenges, including macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical tensions. Despite a record long-term holder supply of 15.8 million BTC, the lack of new market entrants exacerbates worries about Bitcoin's future.
Tim Sun, a researcher with HashKey Group, noted that nearly half of the Bitcoin supply is now held at a loss—a stark reminder of the volatility gripping the market. “If mapped against the on-chain realized price, the absolute bottom territory could be around $40,000 to $45,000,” he cautioned, although he remained hopeful for a more moderate stabilization around $55,000 to $60,000, contingent on easing geopolitical tensions and stable Federal Reserve policies.
In the current unpredictable environment, Darkfost, a leading crypto analyst, highlighted that about 40% of Bitcoin's supply is now underwater. “The market remains challenging for investors, with an air of optimism quickly replaced by pessimism as prices oscillate between ranges,” he stated.
As Bitcoin remains buoyed around the $73,700 mark, the fate of major investors—many of whom acquired their assets at higher levels—hangs in the balance. With the impending expiry of $9 billion in Bitcoin options, market watchers are poised for possible shifts in momentum that could either usher in a new phase of accumulation or exacerbate existing downturns.
As these trends unfold, the cryptocurrency community holds its breath, waiting for definitive signals that could steer the market toward recovery or deeper into the throes of a bear cycle.
Source: Cointelegraph
Source: CoinTelegraph Bitcoin
